-snip-
what do you think about this:
- bitfinex fiat withdrawals are disabled
- people fear Gox specially with everyone repeating it online
- so they cancel fiat withdrawal and buy up bitcoin on bitfinex (price goes up)
- they withdraw bitcoin to other places (mostly bitstamp) and dump there (price goes down there)
- they withdraw their fiat out of fear.
this is more buy pressure on bitfinex and more sell pressure on stamp.
Those factors make sense in terms of current and recent development in market dynamics.
Bitfinex withdrawals are not completely disabled, merely the ones that were processed through Wellsfargo services, and it seems that this is actually legitimate, and not made up by bitfinex and something that they are working on fixing.
Sure some of your description of relevant additional factors even undermines my bitstamp whale theory (I mean the theory that no one is following the supposed bitstamp whale).
With these dynamics, we may need a few more days to see how these matters play out.
Sure sometimes there can be nepharious going on and sometimes there can be factors that are merely being attempted to be figured out.. and those factors affect price dynamics and some folks know about those price factors before other folks who are still trying to figure out dynamics.