The (good) thing is there are two components to this all, criminal and civil. The SEC if I remember correctly is only civil. Yes, they are more lenient if you plead guilty pay fines and restitution, get barred from activities, do community service etc. There is still the criminal aspect which I think is or was tax evasion money laundering, sanction busting etc. There was always this SEC first case civil aspect which kicked everything off, while we were waiting/hoping for the criminal aspect to follow with the IRS, FBI, DHS and whoever else. That's never been addressed openly other than for sure he broke numerous laws in that sector (criminal).  If this plea is real, maybe it includes all the behind scenes that went on or are going on in the criminal aspect of the case. If so, for sure he will receive jail time. If it is only a plea against the civil case of the SEC, then there is a chance they will not jail him, but surely the criminal aspect of the case will then follow. Based on the wording of the leaked info and based on common sense if it can even apply, they bundled up the civil case and the criminal case and he will plead against that combined. Simply because he would not have any resources left to fight a criminal charge after giving up all his ill gotten gains to the SEC.