Real world dynamics is too complex for complicated conspirational plans to work out, or even to "see it coming", but some people will think A is coming, and some people will think B is coming. When A is coming, the first lot thinks they are smart. Within their lot, part of them will see C coming, others will see D coming. If C is coming, those that saw A and C think they are even smarter.
you don't believe in machiaveli ?
Of course. I think everybody is following Machiavelli. But it is not because you PLAN like Machiavelli, that things work out as you planned, simply because there's a lot of competition in applying his evident suggestions.
In fact, it is Machiavelli's universal success that makes that such plans don't work out as expected and that the world is a complicated place.
I'm not saying that nobody is making plans. I'm saying that many people are making plans, that obstruct one another, and lead to unexpected results.