Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: The fiat-money bubble!
by
deisik
on 19/04/2017, 18:45:25 UTC
Right now it is (for the most part, at least)

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fit well into the definition of a financial bubble. I could even claim that Bitcoin is a sort of tulipomania. Just like tulips, bitcoins are useful for some purpose, namely, for transferring value around the world while completely bypassing centralized (real controlled) entities like banks, but Bitcoin current price is by no means determined by this utility. Most of Bitcoin value today comes from sheer speculation. Whether Bitcoin bubble is going to pop eventually or its real use as a currency will finally match its use as a speculative vehicle is not clear as of yet

Good answer, always fun to hear others opinion. =)
I agree with you, bitcoin does fit well in the definition of a bubble as it is completly speculative. But what about fiat money? We have seen again and again trough history how fiat money has just blew up in a bubble, happend with the german mark after world war 2 and then the zimbabwean dollar. Does this not show that fiat moneys value also comes trough speculation? the only diffrence being that it can much more easily be controlled, manipulated and abused to hurt individuals, while cryptocurrencies also are speculative in there value, it does have the security fiat-money does not against corruption and protecting the individual

I think that no, the fiat money value doesn't come about via speculation

But I'm still curious how you can even imagine that. It is more or less clear how people speculate with bitcoins (basically, "buy low, sell high"). It is possible as long as Bitcoin price is rising, i.e. new users constantly bringing their hard-earned dollars, euro, or whatever to the market and buy bitcoins in the hope of selling them at a higher price. I suspect there cannot be bubbles of that kind with fiat currencies. The examples you give refer to severe currency devaluations. Obviously, the latter have nothing to do with speculative bubbles, though the end result is essentially the same (i.e. dramatic loss of value)

Well you are assuming two things here and i will try to give you my opinion. Let me try and explain why i can imagine fiat money being a speculative bubble, english is second language so give me a break on the spelling. =)

Your first assumption that fiat money value is not a result of market speculation, could you elaborate what you believe are the true factors for a currencies value? You seem like you now your economics and i am always eager to hear everyone opinion

Sorry, I didn't read the rest of your post

And I hope that someone did that (instead of me) so your efforts haven't been spent in vain (though I may still read it later). Regarding this question, specifically, I already answered it before, and I think that the answer can be reduced to how value of a currency is determined as such. In fact, it is determined arbitrarily when the currency is first bootstrapped. To make it handy and usable, its basic units as well as the number of these units in total are chosen in such a way that the lowest possible denomination (say, halfpenny or cent) would be enough to buy an item which has the lowest possible value. A box of matches is often used as such an item. After bootstrapping the currency, the long term value of its unit (i.e. how much you can buy with, say, 1 dollar) basically depends on the relationship between total amount of that currency in circulation and the quantity of goods produced as well as the amount of services provided