Educated guessing is a good way of summarizing it. You can never be 100% sure of an outcome (unless as you say you have insider info). However, by following the news and key events likely to impact the price of bitcoin (regulation, past issues that have affected the price) you can then work with a likely outcome. People who trade for a living (whether in bitcoin or fiat) develop a keen sense for picking up signals from the market to make these "educated guesses".
In bitcoin there is always a changes on its price and its transaction. Because change is inevitable so we must take on accepting it and making way to go we the flow. So in bitcoin decision is always vital especially on trader for their tradings. One should monitor the price so they will know if they are going to hold or to buy. So i think educated guessing can be made because its also a matter of taking risk if it going to pump again or dump. We does not have a device on predicting we should just guess with proper education to earn.