This bubble burst in 5 days instead of 5 months. ...
My numbers would be that $100 is the new $5 for the following months.
Bubble bursting follows a double exponential rate of decay, which is the opposite of what happened in the run up. Post peak, one would expect the price halving time to increase - thus the first halving from 266 down to 133, then the second very quickly down to 66.5. In contrast to your view, I think that the having time to 33.25 will be some weeks away - if the rate of decline slows down as in a typical bubble collapse.
What is your basis for the growth rate of the bitcoin economy? A linear regression of the log closing price on Mt. Gox starting in 2010 to present suggests a bitcoin economy growth rate of 4.8x annually = 580%. That is a fantastic growth rate, but the market gets ahead of that when doubling several times in a few months.
Mt.Gox first day = 0.06, yesterday 73. No linear regression, just (days_open/30)th root (73/0.06) ~1.26, hence 3 months double.
It is more than you think. If we continue this way, $300k is expected in 2016
