So how do we get from here to there? I think the only real answer may be, unfortunately, speculation.
No, we need less speculation, way less volatility, we need to make the blockchain scaleable to be able to handle an exponentially higher amount of transactions (as it is now, a single gambling site [satoshi dice] has clogged the blockchain to an almost unusable amount), we need a user friendly way to get money into and out of the system, a better exchanges that are trustworthy
and can handle increased volume, a non poisonous community that doesnt allow scammers and ponzis to flourish (the lending board was an abomination last time I checked), increased and ubiquitous vendor support,
....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.What we dont need (assuming we want BTC to succeed as an experiment) is for BTC to be just a speculative tool for internet nerds, that gets pumped and dumped repeatedly until everyone loses interest.
Their is a high probability this will all happen. We have come very far in 3 short years and the signs point to these barriers being passed in time. Speculation provides liquidity that allows the bitcoin market to actually grow and take on additional, larger-scale roles.
- new and better exchanges/services are being built at an incredible rate
- the devs continue to make excellent progress at improving the core software
- the general public's understanding of bitcoin, how it works, and the type of questions/ideas that spurred its creation continues to improve
Lastly, I strongly believe that even if some aspect of bitcoin ultimately causes total failure, there will be a successor. The more people who are exposed to the idea that it is possible to create an entirely new and superior system, the better. If speculation contributes to that, I don't think its so bad. As long as we continue to caution people (which has happened to a pretty good extent).
Speculation has become a bit of a loaded term and people tend to think of speculation as being equivalent to manipulation, but I don't see it that way. Every new service and merchant who chooses to accept Bitcoin is also speculating, they are speculating that Bitcoin is a viable technology and that it will open their business to a new and growing market. That certainly does not make them manipulators. I think we can all agree that it would be nice if the pump-and-dumpers, schemers, get-rich-quick types and legitimate manipulators could be removed, but that is obviously not possible in a truly free and open market. If Bitcoin is really a viable idea, it will have to be robust enough to survive the growing pains of a nascent emerging market, and if it is not, then it was probably destined to fail anyway. Just my opinion.