It's been a while since I updated the exponential trend, so I took another look at it this week. Here are the previous posts from September and November 2016, for reference:
And here is the updated graph:
It amazing to me that it's been two years now, and the exponential trend is actually getting closer to being a perfect fit!
In September, the r^2 value was 0.874 for an exponential increase of 0.23% per day.
In November, the r^2 value was 0.898 for an exponential increase of 0.22% per day
Now, in April, the r^2 value is 0.944 for an exponential increase of 0.24% per day
Remember, r^2=1.0 is a perfect fit. So over the past two years we are remarkably close to a constant price increase per day of 0.24% (on average). The fluctuations are actually deviating less from that increasing rate.
Bullish!
So back in September I posted an updated trend; the repeating cycle pattern may to be breaking down (I'll have to look into it a bit more carefully to see), however, I also posted this:
However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):
I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear. This is what you get:
From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle. And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!
However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):
I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear. This is what you get:
From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle. And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!
And here is the updated graph:
It amazing to me that it's been two years now, and the exponential trend is actually getting closer to being a perfect fit!
In September, the r^2 value was 0.874 for an exponential increase of 0.23% per day.
In November, the r^2 value was 0.898 for an exponential increase of 0.22% per day
Now, in April, the r^2 value is 0.944 for an exponential increase of 0.24% per day
Remember, r^2=1.0 is a perfect fit. So over the past two years we are remarkably close to a constant price increase per day of 0.24% (on average). The fluctuations are actually deviating less from that increasing rate.
Bullish!