Re: Gnosis - the decentralized prediction market platform and oracle standard
You can trade GNOSIS futures on Bitmex. Already X3 and only a beginning.
Everybody will tell you that price is irrationnal, that you should sell and short as much as possible at current price.
BUT
because it is contratcs and not real coins, the whales who invested 40% of ICO in a few minutes will easily push prices here to be as high as possible before entering exchanges.
Everybody will look at bitmex as the basis for market prices.
Like usual, the contract will go as high as possible before entering exchanges, like ZCASH which went to 10 BTC each (ceiling) or Lisk which went X100.
It attracts noobs to short with leverage. Then you will be margin called because there is infinite potential to margin call every short for Market Maker. Ironically, the more shorts there are, the more the price will rise, making shorts easy targets for margin calls.
The liquidity is so weak that doubling in price and liquidate everybody is so easy.
Everybody will tell you that price is irrationnal, that you should sell and short as much as possible at current price.
BUT
because it is contratcs and not real coins, the whales who invested 40% of ICO in a few minutes will easily push prices here to be as high as possible before entering exchanges.
Everybody will look at bitmex as the basis for market prices.
Like usual, the contract will go as high as possible before entering exchanges, like ZCASH which went to 10 BTC each (ceiling) or Lisk which went X100.
It attracts noobs to short with leverage. Then you will be margin called because there is infinite potential to margin call every short for Market Maker. Ironically, the more shorts there are, the more the price will rise, making shorts easy targets for margin calls.
The liquidity is so weak that doubling in price and liquidate everybody is so easy.
Yup, it's exactly like the movie 'the big short'. You can be correct, but if you don't have deep enough pockets you won't outlast the market's irrationality. In this case it's pure manipulation. So it's a good short, just make sure you are verrry conservatively leveraged. I made a lot on zcash when they were trying to pump it to the moon
It was the only place to short at the time. It's also impossible to predict how Gnosis will be valued. If the market discounts the locked in tokens we could see $200 gnosis for a long time.
Well of course it could pump initially, but at a $2 Billion market cap, that's a gamble I'm more than willing to take. Def not sustainable imo. Smells like Zcash all over again.
There is no $2 billion market cap. Only 15% of the tokens are on the market. The only people that think it should be valued on total token value are those who missed the sale.