How could the price shoot up from around 70 to 135 when the fundamentals could not be worse - bitcoin-24 halted, bitfloor shuts down and blockchain was down? Could people really rally because of that article about Western Union on fox?
I hold a diametrically opposed view.
It might be selective perception, but I see mainly good news and especially news with wide reach to untapped reservoirs.
Some examples (I could never give a complete list, no way to keep track of everything any more)
- Jeff Berwick constantly on TV in the states promoting bitcoin and his ATM. Great story!
- Max Keiser everywhere he is (Alex Jones, Russia Today,...) promoting bitcoin.
- James Turk and other metal dudes seemingly coming around.
- More generally: Mainstream TV coverage (e.g. colbert report), print coverage (I see german print media as an example falling over themselves trying to get a grasp on bitcoin). And not even negative at all despite the shit that happened (fork, mtgox engine lag, crash, bitfloor shutdown).
How could the price not shoot back up? We're not in a bear market. We suffered a very panic-driven hard over-correction and the rebound will be rather quick. Then we'll shoot past 266 to 450ish. Much quicker than most seem to think. My guess is In May or June.
Bitcoin is fundamentally a good thing and people know it.
I don't see anything fundamental in this list, which consists of anecdotal media references. I agree that media will continue to play the lead role in pricing Bitcoin. If any of the recent developments had happened quietly, without major press releases, we would still be hovering around $13.50.
I guess if there is ever an actual big piece of news, we can rest assured that the price would rise to astronomical levels. The Western Union non-news piece that moved us substantially was a virtual repeat of an interview that happened over a month ago. They've already said they're watching Bitcoin and may revisit it after it matures sometime in the distant future.
Many point to the types of charts listed below as fundamental evidence.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2013-03-19+to+2013-04-19http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=qI love the Bitcoin concept but hate (understatement) that it moves so erratically. I would love nothing more than to see high net-worth individuals begin utilizing Bitcoin in their portfolios......but it seems that we can only move in a bizarre and erratic manner based solely on press releases of little substance. I keep waiting and hoping it will settle down and at least pretend to be rational. Such low volume propels it into the stratosphere.
I am very close to giving up on Bitcoin, at least temporarily, as an investment vehicle. I may revisit it down the road if it truly attains fundamentals outside of the press release circuit. The media pump is doing more harm than good. I initially joined this forum to find out what everyone here was all about and have kind of been sucked into posting regularly, often regarding the over-exuberance (IMO).
If I am correct and we move down to rational levels and stay there for awhile, I will revisit Bitcoin. If I am completely wrong and we move up much higher and, for some magical reason, finally enjoy a modicum of stability (doubtful), I will revisit Bitcoin. If we actually stabilize here for awhile, I may revisit. At the present, there is too much risk to do anything with this.....I cannot gamble solely based on media hype and hyper-speculation. If we were much lower, it might be worth the gamble.
My main problem is that Met-Art, OKCupid, Bitpay, the VCs, etc etc, have become much less important than the accompanying press releases. If the CEO of Bank of America owned a single bitcoin and issued a press release stating just that, we'd apparently go to $10K.