Post
Topic
Board Development & Technical Discussion
Re: Reminder: zero-conf is not safe; $500USD reward posted for replace-by-fee patch
by
unk
on 19/04/2013, 22:57:29 UTC
There's no guarantee, but Satoshi's paper addresses the dynamics of this - rational miners shouldn't want to undermine the validity of their own wealth. Doing things that significantly reduce the utility of the system is self-defeating even over the medium term because it'd lead people to just give up on the system in disgust and sell their coins, driving down the price.

i believe this is an analytical error that i've tried to correct many times before. for one thing, it ignores dynamic market effects (for example, someone who profits from a put option, a short sale, or even a regular sale). it is usually a mistake to predict too confidently what 'rational' parties will do based on an incomplete understanding of their behaviour.