I think eventually sometime in the future Segwit will get activated. Miners want money correct? Well they make money in 2 different ways.

1) Extra miner fees with every block they find. Currently its usually an extra ~1 BTC or so.

2) 12.5 BTC for the block reward.

After Segwit goes online their miner fees will be reduced because blocks won't be filled up as before. However with the huge adoption of Bitcoin in the near future, the fees will go back to the way they were. LightningNetwork is way too far off right now to think about.

However if BTC/USD can double/triple just by Segwit activation then their mined BTC will be worth much more.

Basically pick the better option.


14.00  BTC per block @ 1500 BTC/USD

12.75 BTC per block @ 2000 BTC/USD



Which option would the miners choose?


However there is a centralization issue at the moment in China that they probably still want control off. When BTC goes higher, more miner manufactures might start ASIC production and they will lose marketshare. By keeping BTC/USD low, then they can still keep their monopoly. But if BTC/USD is very high then they will start to get competition.