Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: The price of Bitcoin in 2020
by
w@p
on 07/05/2017, 20:40:51 UTC
The scenarios are based on studying historical charts and doing some TA.
Disclaimer: I do not trade professionally and I have little experience in technical analysis.

Scenario A is Bitcoin FOMO on a global scale with accelerated adoption by retail, e-commerce and financial institutions.
A declining stockmarket would add extra fuel to the fire.

Scenario B is a 1:1 copy of the last bull run that started in the summer of 2013.
Basically this comes down to ±6x the previous top: $210 > $1200 > $7200.

Scenario C is based on steadily declining multipliers for the tops.
top $30 > top $210 = x7
top $210 > top $1200 = x6
top $1200 > top $5500 - $6000 = x5

Scenario D is based on a declining base to top multiplier  (multiplier x0.666)
2011 spring base $1 > 2013 summer top $30 = x30
2012 fall base $10 > 2013 spring top $200 = x20
2013 summer base $100 > 2013 december top $1200 = x12
2015 summer base $250 > 2017 fall top $2000 - $2300 =x8

Scenario E is a consolidation fase with a retest of the psychological $1000 level. This level will now function as support.

Scenario F is Scenario C but with a lower top and consolidation at the $2000 level.

Scenario G and H are based on a future where Bitcoin will no longer be the dominant cryptocurrency. In this scenario Bitcoin will be surpassed by competitors or successors with better technology and/or it will fail to provide a solid solution for the scaling issues and long confirmation times.