Lets break this down real quick:
1. You want to hedge your bet.
2. You are absolutely positive BFL won't ship. Ergo, a bet against BFL is a sure thing, according to your claim.
3. You are guaranteed a win of 500 BTC (or whatever amount you care to wager)
4. You don't want to bet because it's the "opposite" of hedging.
Let's break
THIS down a little bit
1. you consider orders with your own company a bet
2. you consider a 10% hedge against a 100% order a sure thing
3. again, you're willing to cheat and scam your way to the winning side of a bet
4. you're really bad at math.
So you just tell me how many units you consider legit to satisfy the claim of shipped there champ, we'll go with that.
How about we start with the orders so far which have been bought and paid for in full. That shouldn't be too hard, a company shipping orders that were paid for months ago, should it? Legally an order has to be refunded or shipped within 30 days of full payment, so we can exclude any orders placed since march 20th, so only the orders placed between june 2012, and march 20, 2013. I'll put 350 BTC in escrow up against that, that you won't ship all orders placed within that time period before june 1st, 2013. What do you say?
Yep, I nailed it. Your claim:
BFL won't ship any product.
Your bet: BFL won't ship thousands of products before June 1st.
Which is it Franky? Will BFL ship a product or not? Your claim is that BFL won't ship a product, you are unwilling to bet on that, but you ARE willing to bet that BFL won't ship thousands of products before June 1st, 2013. Why would you need to put such ridiculous constraints on a bet when you believe BFL won't even ship a single product?
Oh... maybe it's because you're a lying piece of shit? Yeah, thought so...
I'm the lying piece of shit? Point out where i said BFL won't ship any product. I could refute other parts of this post, but the entirety of it is based on the claim that i said "BFL won't ship any product."