Actually maximum transaction size and maximum block size ARE connected. There are currently no limits on transaction size which means one transaction can be the size of the whole block. To actually restrict it to 1MB requires a fork that makes it part of the consensus rules.[...]
I don't have an opinion either way since I don't know how realistic the long term requirement for a >1MB transaction is. Perhaps it could be the collective transactions for one massive company for a day or something, not sure...
Interesting, thanks. Would there be a way to restrict only legacy (P2PKH/P2SH) transactions? In this case, we could leave the way open for Segwit-style transactions with more than 1 MB.
The way the agreement is presented:
We agree to immediately support the following parallel upgrades to the bitcoin protocol, which will be deployed simultaneously and based on the original Segwit2Mb proposal:
Activate Segregated Witness at an 80% threshold, signaling at bit 4
Activate a 2 MB hard fork within six months
what I interpret is:
- the upgrade to the code is done in parallel (both Segwit fork and 2MB HF coded into the same version and with the "timeline" activating at the same block)
- Segwit is activated when 80% of the mined blocks signal it (that could be inmediately)
- while the 2MB hardfork is activated after 6 months.
So in my opinion the most likely outcome is that Segwit is activated nearly inmediately (2-6 weeks) and the 2MB hard fork 6 months after the block where the protocol change occurs.