Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
This was an impressive shakeout.
Reminds me of the one in the week of 18th Nov 2013, it crashed down from a top of 800 to 450, everyone was like: "That's it, it's over guys, bubble has popped."
Then it slowly resumed the climb, at some point the sellers had to buy back in, and this baby went from 450 to 1200
A similar scenario might be unfolding right now.
I think this rally is not over yet.
Reminds me of the one in the week of 18th Nov 2013, it crashed down from a top of 800 to 450, everyone was like: "That's it, it's over guys, bubble has popped."
Then it slowly resumed the climb, at some point the sellers had to buy back in, and this baby went from 450 to 1200
A similar scenario might be unfolding right now.
I think this rally is not over yet.
If it does rally again in the same fashion as you are describing, it will also be headed for a large, deep correction (exactly what happened after 1200). What would be "better" would be some sideways for a while.
We both know that won't happen though.
It will be either:
1 - FOMO re-engages, it goes parabolic, then it dumps and we see another protracted bear market. Some people make a mint, more castles are bought, most lose a shit-ton of money and it results in more damage to trust in BTC and crypto as a whole.
2 - This is "Return to Normal", rally loses steam, more dumps but less risk of a long term bear market and much less damage overall.
We'll know in the next 12h I think.
Anyone else care to place their bets?
We still look in bubble territory to me - I agree the long-term danger is re-ignition and a blast to the $3.5-5k area, followed by a protracted bear market that retraces back to the triple digits before the next cycle can engage around the next halving. This assumes that Bitcoin is not out evolved by something else by then. Don't discount what another loss of confidence in BTC could do, given the proliferation of alternatives out there now.