oops RHavar's spot on answer disappeared hmm was it deleted by OP or RHavar?
I deleted it. I figured it was a a bit harsh, and there's probably a lot of information that hasn't yet been released. I believe everyone deserves the benefit of doubt, so I'll wait until MP has come to a final decision and given a proper statement before making an ass of myself.
You had posted something along the lines that there was a 1-in-4 chance that a player would turn 1 BTC into 4 BTC (I think it was actually closer to turning 4 BTC into 16 BTC).
Could you possibly explain the math behind this statement if you assume a player is not going to "YOLO" and bet in a way so that they need a single winning bet to accomplish the above (the actual assumption would be to have a minimum of 10 winning bets, which I would speculate is on the low side regarding when most gamblers will stop....I would speculate that most gamblers would stop somewhere closer to after 100 winning bets -- the betting sequence would not need to involve equal bets, but a single win of 3.999..99 BTC and 9 wins of 0.00..0001 BTC is not a realistic sequence that a gambler would engage in).
I am not sure if this part can be expressed mathematically, however I am also curious to know the chances of a gambler BOTH having a sequence, server/client seed combination, bankroll/starting bet combination that will allow him to 4x his money AND to stop gambling before busting. For example, a gambler who wants to 10x his initial bankroll who has a server/client seed combination (ect.) that would allow him to 6x his initial bankroll will end up busting, however a gambler who is in the same situation except whose goal is to 4x his initial bankroll will end up multiplying his initial bankroll by 4x even though he could have potentially multiplied his bankroll by 6x.