Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
by
Chainsaw
on 01/06/2017, 16:38:20 UTC
(I'm bullish, and hold a position in GBTC. This is not advice, yadayada)

We spiked to over 300% on day one.
We spiked to nearly $150 on the spike to $500.

Lots of mainstream articles are coming out now. They are the first hours and days mainstream investors have considered GBTC as an investment.
There are some aspects to it that are different from a TSLA play these authors might have considered.
...and then they write from their position of ignorance.

You can't short GBTC. It's a pink sheet stock.
Most holders have to hold for a full year. The mix of people in this camp was originally very large, and is shrinking as casual investors enter the stock.

GBTC is a slow moving ship.
Historically, it has done two things that can cause investors to gnash their teeth:

It likes to price in the new high ahead of time.
It likes to shrug off minor corrections and adhere to its 1yr+ support line.

These writers are focused on spread.
Spread is a lagging variable here, and it can go much further out of bounds than is typically true, because of the aforementioned reasons.

Because of the risk/reward profile, I tend to wait until we seem to have a confirmation of top before thinking about exiting.
Most recently that was a rebalancing sell in the 400s vs the 500s.

All the articles regarding GBTC now ignore its past behavior, and smack of a first-days understanding of the investment vehicle.