Hey guys, first post here

I'm trying to figure out what the roi and break even point is for early investors/contributors.

Is the following correct?
Ico lasting time = Minimum: 1 hour, Maximum: $250m / 14 days.
50% token release for early investors/contributors, 20% free as promotion and partnerships rewards, 10% for team, 20% team reserve (company).
Max $250m. 1 Eth ~= $250 (let's assume and work with this value as of this example). 1 Eth => 100 Bancor (BNT) tokens. Thus:
1 BNT = $250/100 Eth = $2,50
$250m/Eth($250) = 100m Eth => 100m Eth * 100 BNT = 10b BNT.
Circulating supply = 50% * 10b BNT = 5b
Total supply = 10b
Break-even profit point per BNT = > ($5 + total preceding costs).

If the break-even profit point is say $5,50, is it even worth to invest in this ico? I mean, 10 billion tokens is way too much for the given price of 1 BNT for 0,01 ETH.
That's only 50% of the total supply, thus for 5b BNT. I don't think huge gains can be made when hit on the exchanges due to two forementioned points, while still carrying a high risk.

Please enlighten me further, thank you.