I don't see how this is mathematically profitable to the average investor.
For example, Primedice (according to dicesites.com) has 2,772 BTC wagered through it's site since the end of May. Extrapolated for a months time would be about ~12,000 BTC or approximately $34 million a month.
With a house edge of 1% you would have an expected profit value of $340,000 a month, which is a significant amount of money, if you own all of the tokens and get 100%.
However, $5000 investment of ETH (~19 ETH as of today) would only yield 3800 tokens assuming you got it at the best price. (200 tokens / 1 ETH first hour).
Lets assume all 5 million tokens are sold.
3800 tokens is only 0.076% of the total 5 million available tokens (about $6.5 million at first hour price).
So if it was as popular as Primedice, 0.076% [of $340,000] would only net you ~$258 a month.
That is a full 19 months before you even make back your original investment of $5000!
Don't forget this is all under the assumption that idice would even become as popular as Primedice (been around 4 years) and would also do so instantly.
Guy, let's take a look at this...Mr.Joshua juggled with some numbers up here and made some fairly accurate assumptions. Now, he pointed out that, if he's assumptions are more or less correct, it will take
19 months for you to get your money back, if you invested at best price (first hour). This is obviously true, regardless of the amount. 19 months.
IF they ever become as successful as Primedice.com - the biggest players in the market.
It's was pointed out (on page 5 of this thread) that Mr.Joshua does not take into consideration, that the coin itself has value and can be traded on exchanges. Now, what makes a coin valuable?
-
Bitcoin: Has value because it's being used as digital currency for payments in real life
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Ether: Has value because it's the oil of the Ethereum network. You pay with Ether to use the network.
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iDice: Has value because it pays out dividends
One "iDice" will pay you
~0.067$ dividends per month. This one "iDice initially cost
~1.31$ during the ICO (taken the example from above).
The time to break even, who would've thought, is obviously exactly the same - more than 19 months.
There is absolutely
no reason, why the market value of this coin would ever significantly increase, because
it takes ages to get your money back. There is no other value to this coin, than the dividends. Don't just assume the coin will gain value because "
that's what cryptos do"!
(Yes, an increase of revenue would be a reason, but we're talking in this example about numbers from Primedice who has been in the market for years and is the biggest player by far. We surely can assume that not all 5 million tokens will be sold, so the dividends will be higher per token, but we also have to assume that iDice will never wager $34 millions).Fun fact: 1 Ether is currently gaining about 10$ a day. Do you really think that is a great trade here?