Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.
The outlook of a more robust and more professional exchange is exactly what makes bitcoins even now undervalued in my opinion. Everyone knows what will happen once these exchanges hit the market, so you better prepare now for it and not wait until the price shoots up drastically with some real investors joining the market.