...
On August 1 there will be a soft fork (UASF) which can lead to a coin split if miners do not signal segwit. But if miners signal segwit, there will be no split and it will just be a normal day. But the FUD it creates may shake the newbies into dumping their coins.
I have a stupid question, so please don't abuse me.
Why would a miners NOT signal segwit and do the soft fork? That seems to be the no brainer. It is the BU hardfork, with much bigger changes and issues, and potentially losses, that would be questionable participation I would think.
Is it possible there are miners out there asleep at the switch that would inadvertently miss not doing the segwit signal?
some of them are already signalling SegWit, a little bit above 30% of the miners. and some of them have been more or less silent. i personally think that they are silent because they are small and are afraid of attacks. for example DDoS attacks against them if they start signalling SegWit, and it has happened to F2Pool
so they are waiting for the 30% to grow first then jump in.