Not sure if your idea is correct.
A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
1)the current difficulty is set still for 11 days.
2) the current network hash moves up and down constantly
3) bitminters hash moves up and down constantly
I have been told by some heavy hitters that bitminters Hash to current difficulty is what matters in assessment of luck. The rest of the network does not affect what bitminter should find in blocks in a day. I don't quite understand this. Right now we are hashing 5.5 out of the networks 74. and the difficulty is 8.9 mill. While the diff has been at 8.9 the network hash had as much as 85Th hash and bitminter has has as high as 6.05th hash.
5.5 divide by 74 is .0743 our share of the network. difficulty is 8.9 mill
6.05 divide by 84 is .072 our share of the network. difficulty is 8.9 mill
so looking at the two examples I think the way the luck is calculated right now uses our hash against the difficulty. this would mean we should get more blocks with the 6.05 since it is larger then 5.5 and the difficulty is constant. While I see the consistency in this I think it is not accurate since our network share is better with the smaller hash I would think we would get more blocks with that number.
Look at it from another viewpoint. Lets say BTC guild the biggest pool had a technical issue crashes and the crash lasts 1 day. lets say it even affects the miners in it and they are all locked out for a day. so for this day we are at 6th the network difficulty is set at 8.9 mill but the network now has 40Th not 74TH. so our share is 6 divide by 40 = .15 For this day I feel we would get more blocks then the day before when the network had 74Th and we had the same 6th. I have been told this is not true since the hash of us is still 6 and the difficulty is still 8.9 mill.
But my training is accounting not a programming or statistical degree. I can say this 2 or 3 times when the network had a big drop off in hash and we did not drop we had great luck.