the emergent consensus will get ...
Emergent consensus has nothing to do with this. Forget anything to do with BU, that's been long forgotten by the power players. Any reference to EC in their block signature is there for legacy reasons and doesn't remotely mean they're interested in BU any more. BU supporters will insist this isn't the end for them and that it's still compatible with segwit2x, but then so is XT, classic and any other defunct attempt at a takeover from the past that never activates and stays on the current chain waiting to take it over at some unforeseen parallel universe future. Forget EC.
So... forget Segwit then? After all, it's also a
defunct attempt at a takeover from the past that never activates... UASF is crap, and Segwit2x doesn't have a codebase or dev support last I checked. Unlimited has both of those (inb4 "but it's buggy", etc.).
People seem very confident about what will happen based on what people are saying. Remember that miners don't trust Core at all after they breached the Hong Kong agreement. Miners are perfectly within the negotiating rules to say whatever they want. What they (and the other players in this game) will do is another matter entirely.