When it comes to Litecoin I cannot agree. Over the short term yes Litecoin could do very well if Bitcoin seizes up even more due to the 1 MB blocksize limit; however from the long term fundamental point of view Litecoin has the same issue as Bitcoin. Think Bitcoin with a 4 MB blocksize limit. This only kicks the can down the road.
I agree with your analysis. My position is planned to be short term. I see this as a 2-3 month play. I've already sold off enough to cover the original investment too.