The fact is plain and simple. Somebody that had $150 ten months ago would have been better off just buying 23BTC directly since a Jalapeno will likely only mine 75% or so of that before it's unproductive.
If you could tell me exactly what the price of BTC will be 10 months from now, please let me know so I can either buy or sell a shit load of BTC. Until then, please don't ever post again.
The future exchange rate has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with this. Hold my hand as I walk you through it. If somebody wants to invest in BTC they can either A) buy them or B) buy hardware to mine them.
If they had decided to A) buy BTC and the price of BTC today was $1,000, they would have 23BTC today. If the price of BTC today was $0, they would still have 23BTC today.
If they decided to B) pre-order a Jalapeno to mine them and the price today was $1,000, they would have 0BTC today. If the price was $0, they would still have 0BTC. If the price in a year from now is $1,000 they
might have 17BTC by that time. If the price in a year is $0, they would still have 17BTC.
See how that works? Somebody that pre-ordered a Jalapeno 10 months ago will have 25% less BTC than if they bought them directly. It doesn't matter what the exchange rate has done in the last 10 months.
Watch out for this guy Inaba, it seems he has more common sense (and critical thinking) than most....