Do you understand that it's impossible for everyone to win?
Speculation of bitcoins is just a way for people to steal from each other... there will always be losers and winners, it is not much different from gambling
people put their money together and whoever exchanges his bitcoins at the right time will make a profit (and someone will have to take the equal loss)
whereas exchanges like mt.gox will continue to make profit either way
I know this is very basic but after reading this forum I am not sure if everyone understand this
so it's impossible for everyone to benefit, my guess is that numbers are close to 25-30% of people stealing from the rest (or making profit) similar to Forex
learn2gametheory and it'll seem less confusing/dumb.
and yes, i do think everyone realizes this, although when irrational bullish greed starts clouding this basic concept, it's usually a market top.