You got it backwards, price will rise 50% after august 1 (look at litecoin). There won't be a hard fork in August but there will be Segwit activation. We will get Segwit activated either through USAF or Segwit2x. And yeah you can ignore the 2x part of Segwit2x because it will never happen. I would not be short this market, you could get bear trapped.
Quite a few people got bear trapped when it dipped back below $1000, and I think the same holds true now.
The price pumped up to $3000 despite all the technical arguments, and a huge backlog of unconfirmed transactions. Nobody cares about any of that during a bull run, the price pumps despite it.