The highest % of the outcome is that this is all a big fat bluff, just like xt, classic, and unlimited were. The actors at play know the consequences of a hardfork
SegWit 2x is not a hard fork until the change to 2MB base blocks, three months after SegWit activation.
XT, Classic and Unlimited never had enough mining support to happen, and were not "bluffs", just "failed proposals".