MtGox low today was $91.... nice time to buy.
Personally I think the true value is whatever the real retail market indicates. As more vendors accept Bitcoin the value will have to be determined based on the size of the economy. So if there is a $20 billion economy with 10 million bitcoins in the market place that makes 1 BTC = $20000.
Second - the BTC economy will grow by leaps and bounds.
It is dirt easy for brick and mortar to accept BTC. As long as they know how to manage their wallet - it is the best payment method bar none.
Porn - they are going to be all over this.
Micro Payments. The Internet is about 20 years old now (1994)... and there have been many advances and success stories. But Micro Payments have been hurt by the shitty banking industry. I should be able to go to WSJ or NYT and pay a damned nickel or less to view a page. That doesn't happen because of bank transaction costs.
Local P2P... obvious.
The one thing that will hold all of this back to some degree is value stability of Bitcoin. Eventually though we will reach that point. When the the true value is determined and it turns out to be very high for 1 BTC - say $20k for a bitcoin - then a few dollars up or down won't make a difference and you will in effect have value stability.
Comments welcome!