While typing this I'm realizing that it's likely that the QT client wasn't fully closing when it seemed to be, so I'll check task manager to see if that's an issue.
It seems to disappear from task manager when I close it. That makes the reboot working seem even more odd. But basically most of the time I restart the client it's out of sync. Can't it just autosync when it's open? Pretty confused about that. Or is that just how it operates?
Or maybe my reboot theory is just placebo, but that seems pretty unlikely given the behavior of the confirmations after reboots. Is it just a sync problem?