I understand what you are saying.
I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.
The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.
So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.
Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.
Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.
Its no different than a moving average indicator.
Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!! T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.
I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.
But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.
-DE