Don't beat yourself up too much: a lot of people have a hard time wrapping their heads around the concepts.
https://medium.com/@nickadamsjudge/no-ico-market-caps-are-not-crazy-the-reason-is-basic-economics-ae4f11ca0114
if you study the volatility when it is low you can enter. I track the Median price in my sig - it is a good start of where to enter or exit if you are trading.