Re: -- The Riddle of the Twin Brothers - Who Were, Are and Will Rule the World!
It somehow makes sense, however there are some flaws in your post, stuff that I don't see you to mention:
1. The post you are quoting is from 2016, at that time no Coin had SegWit working. Starting from May 10, LTC has SegWit working flawless. I know, LTC doesn't have the number of transactions BTC, but still, it works.
2. Even if the split happens, so what, we will have a COIN, not an ALTCOIN, we will use for small/medium volume FAST transactions, and another COIN, not ALTCOIN, we will use for value storage. Basically, one will be crypto $, another one crypto gold.
3. The fact that SegWit is being implemented for a long period is good as well, most worst case scenario exist and they are debated and this is also GOOD!
4. Worst case scenario - BTC splits in 4 chains. We will have coins on all of them. How to know which one to hold? Well, if you are not from the future, than you can't possibly know what price every coin will have tomorrow, but you know the price at this moment. Which one will be better? Well, one will be useful for some tasks, the other coins will have their particular use.
5. Which one to hold? Well, you have 1-4 decentralized, fair, proof-of-work crypto currencies. Just hold all of them and mine whatever you like more and exchange it for whatever you like the most, just convert same amount from every coin (if you need 1000$, 250$ worth of each coin assuming there are 4).
6. I think nobody can know what will be tomorrow, I believe that your assumption has zero solid evidence, going from one personal opinion to another.
7. Bitcoin price on 9th of August 2016 was 585$, today it is 2257$ on BTC-E, even bigger on other exchanges, this is 11 days before the countdown timer.
8. 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC (at least
).I don't think it's gonna be that simple. You left out nChain, they're gonna have mass support.
You left out Blockstream and the high probability their chain will be minority so they'll fork off into a new PoW chain.
Both of these are backed by major players. So you'll have at least 3 major chains, plus the abandoned one: Silbert's, Core's and nChain's. This is minimum.
Throw in bugs, replay attacks, network attacks, the Segwit exploit I mentioned last month and other unexpected events which could lead to eXchange/wallet attacks and other forks, and you've got what I've been predicting for a year: Full-blown war and chaos.
And my feeling is that this scenario has a higher probability to play out than the scenario you're expecting.
FYI: LTC threshold for Segwit was 95% not 80%.
