Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: The short term bear case
by
rpietila
on 04/05/2013, 11:09:21 UTC
Quote
There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month.

By bubble, I mean the commonly accepted notion of speculative financial bubble as used by the press, traders, financiers and economists. I am not so much interested in your definition of bubble, but rather how you would characterize the price action from January 1 to present, and how to profit from it.

Namely, could you recognize the next bubble when it comes? And if you did, what actions would you take? If you do not accept that prices will be lower after a bitcoin bubble collapse then how can you execute a sell-high, buy-back-low trade - you would not have the preconditions to make the trade!

You believe that the underlying bitcoin economy is growing very very rapidly. I believe that it is growing very rapidly. My belief allows for bubbles.

OK, but a great bubble was only in 2011, and the one that takes bitcoin to more than its long term value will be named the greatest bubble.

A bubble that is forgotten in 2 weeks is not a bubble in my vocabulary but maybe in yours, i am fine with it.

The only time I net sold bitcoin was over $200 (except some trades that I plan to buy back in max 6 hours, and some OTC trades that are wildly profitable marginwise, and I delay buyback max 72 hours; sometimes for the reason that it takes such long time to get the money to Bitstamp, other times I little bit play with my anticipation of a negative price action).

After dealer network, bubbles will be pretty much a thing of the past, so after June, no bubbles.