Right, so then we're back at my initial question: Is difficulty irrelevant as long as you know the net hash and your own hash rate?
Sounds to me that it is irrelevant. I mean, the difficulty by itself doesn't mean anything if you don't know net hash and your own. But if you know the net hash and your own, the difficulty number is irrelevant.
for calculation of your chance of blocks at solo mining would would be correct.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty: 872,153,520,785 (+8.41%)
Adjust time: After 946 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?): 6,427,553,497 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.4 minutes
Updated: 7:30 (2.3 minutes ago)
above the hash rate for btc is 6,427,553,497 gh that is 6427.5 ph
so if you had 642.75 ph or 10% you would hit 14 to 15 blocks a day about 200-210 coins