So here's how I read the current sentiment around this forum: most people who watched 2011 happen here are now expecting a dump. Most newbies aren't.
I've been involved with Bitcoin since early 2011 (registered here in June 2011). A dump wouldn't surprise me at this point, but I'm honestly perplexed as to why the price is not skyrocketing now. So many of the things we dreamed of in 2011 are happening:
1. Bitcoin has gotten serious and very favorable attention from a number of extremely well-known VCs
2. As a result of (1), a number of amazing new Bitcoin businesses are being built as we speak.
3. Bitcoin has gotten explicit legal recognition from the US (Fincen)
4. Bitcoin is routinely covered in mainstream financial news (WSJ, Forbes, Economist). Much of the coverage is positive.
5. Bitcoin is gaining adoption as a payment system by more and more "regular" business each day. Watch r/bitcoin for a few days and see.
6. The CEOs of both Paypal and Western Union have said that they're seriously thinking about integrating Bitcoin into their businesses.
And to top it off, we've gotten a huge positive surprise no one even dreamed of: Bitcoin was covered very positively in a half-hour special of one of China's most popular financial news programs, signaling implicit Chinese government approval of Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin dives, I know what I'm doing.
There were a lot of bad news as well though. Exchanges bank accounts closing, propaganda attack with that kiddy porn links, there was that stupid icnn report that obama has banned bitcoins.
The good fundamentals you mention though are really good. They hint at mass adoption. The new craze. Maybe the new facebook like big thing.
But, it is a very learning to walk stage for bitcoins, hence the ups and downs.