Re: Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks yet to open
This is not yet a guess, just fun with numbers.
If Difficulty were to go up (just) 8.32% this go-round, we'd be at difficulty of 1E12. I recall late summer 2013, when no one believed that difficulty would hit a Billion by the end of the year. (It did, block 276192, on 12/21/13)
I've been sharpening my dart this week. This is a more difficult prediction than I thought. Thanks for funding the contest!
New contest picks to start at block 1116.If Difficulty were to go up (just) 8.32% this go-round, we'd be at difficulty of 1E12. I recall late summer 2013, when no one believed that difficulty would hit a Billion by the end of the year. (It did, block 276192, on 12/21/13)
I've been sharpening my dart this week. This is a more difficult prediction than I thought. Thanks for funding the contest!
Experimental Image Contribution:
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Difficulty History
Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate
Jul 27 2017 860,221,984,436 6.92% 6,157,708,817 GH/s
Jul 14 2017 804,525,194,568 13.53% 5,759,015,666 GH/s
Jul 02 2017 708,659,466,230 -0.43% 5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174....... 4.85% .... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 23 2017 595,921,917,085 6.42% 4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017 559,970,892,891 7.28% 4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017 521,974,519,554 0.22% 3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017 520,808,749,422 4.24% 3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017 499,635,929,817 5.03% 3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017 475,705,205,062 3.24% 3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017 460,769,358,091 4.54% 3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017 440,779,902,287 4.41% 3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017 422,170,566,884 7.43% 3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017 392,963,262,344 16.64% 2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017 336,899,932,796 6.05% 2,411,623,656 GH/s
If you are overseas I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor
Rules
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950
I am checking this list of rules from older thread
1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017 you must have at least 30 posts. --
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: Block 1116
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
6) picks end at
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: 516
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
7) since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.
8 ) note the change picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.
9) format is below and this is the contest picks from 2016 in code
as low as you want
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
to as high as you want
10) Finally If I missed anything I will be the sole decider as to what is fair.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950
I am checking this list of rules from older thread
1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017 you must have at least 30 posts. --
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: Block 1116
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
6) picks end at
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: 516
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
7) since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.
8 ) note the change picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.
9) format is below and this is the contest picks from 2016 in code
as low as you want
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
to as high as you want
Code:
-1.2 = philipma1957 >>>> I always pick this number
-0.5 = Erumara
0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7 ! Thank you! @ Roadstress Pleaz try to do it right > +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8 = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm I changed your pick to +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC
-0.5 = Erumara
0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7 ! Thank you! @ Roadstress Pleaz try to do it right > +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8 = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm I changed your pick to +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC
Code:
Difficulty History
Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___ Hash Rate
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174 .......... 4.85%..... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 24 2016 199,312,067,531 2.60% 1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016 194,254,820,283 8.73% 1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016 178,659,257,773 -0.01% 1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016 178,678,307,672 7.09% 1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016 166,851,513,283 0.82% 1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016 165,496,835,118 4.46% 1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016 158,427,203,767 -3.10% 1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016 163,491,654,909 13.44% 1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016 144,116,447,847 20.06% 1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016 120,033,340,651 5.89% 859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016 113,354,299,801 9.12% 811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015 103,880,340,815 11.16% 743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015 93,448,670,796 18.14% 668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015 79,102,380,900 8.77% 566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015 72,722,780,643 10.44% 520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015 65,848,255,180 5.77% 471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015 62,253,982,450 2.25% 445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015 60,883,825,480 0.12% 435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015 60,813,224,039 2.49% 435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015 59,335,351,234 4.17% 424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015 56,957,648,455 4.98% 407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015 54,256,630,328 2.95% 388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015 52,699,842,409 0.81% 377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015 52,278,304,846 2.35% 374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015 51,076,366,303 3.39% 365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015 49,402,014,931 -0.58% 353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015 49,692,386,355 4.42% 355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015 47,589,591,154 -2.50% 340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015 48,807,487,245 2.44% 349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015 47,643,398,018 0.07% 341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015 47,610,564,513 -3.71% 340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015 49,446,390,688 5.84% 353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015 46,717,549,645 -1.50% 334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015 47,427,554,951 1.59% 339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015 46,684,376,317 5.01% 334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com
Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___ Hash Rate
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174 .......... 4.85%..... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 24 2016 199,312,067,531 2.60% 1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016 194,254,820,283 8.73% 1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016 178,659,257,773 -0.01% 1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016 178,678,307,672 7.09% 1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016 166,851,513,283 0.82% 1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016 165,496,835,118 4.46% 1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016 158,427,203,767 -3.10% 1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016 163,491,654,909 13.44% 1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016 144,116,447,847 20.06% 1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016 120,033,340,651 5.89% 859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016 113,354,299,801 9.12% 811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015 103,880,340,815 11.16% 743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015 93,448,670,796 18.14% 668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015 79,102,380,900 8.77% 566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015 72,722,780,643 10.44% 520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015 65,848,255,180 5.77% 471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015 62,253,982,450 2.25% 445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015 60,883,825,480 0.12% 435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015 60,813,224,039 2.49% 435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015 59,335,351,234 4.17% 424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015 56,957,648,455 4.98% 407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015 54,256,630,328 2.95% 388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015 52,699,842,409 0.81% 377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015 52,278,304,846 2.35% 374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015 51,076,366,303 3.39% 365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015 49,402,014,931 -0.58% 353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015 49,692,386,355 4.42% 355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015 47,589,591,154 -2.50% 340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015 48,807,487,245 2.44% 349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015 47,643,398,018 0.07% 341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015 47,610,564,513 -3.71% 340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015 49,446,390,688 5.84% 353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015 46,717,549,645 -1.50% 334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015 47,427,554,951 1.59% 339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015 46,684,376,317 5.01% 334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com
10) Finally If I missed anything I will be the sole decider as to what is fair.
Experimental Image Contribution:
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
And look at the diff drop
