I care about short term future price.
I'm not sure I agree with the words of wisdom.
1. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
If I follow such advise I end up investing only a few percent of my capital in anything. Losing more then a few percent means I need to reduce my lifestyle.
However, investing only a few percent will not allow me to increase my lifestyle if it works out. Basically investing a few percent won't make a difference for me, when it goes down, or when it goes up.
I think this is generally true for most people.
Just to check. Do you follow that advice yourself? How much percent of your capital is invested in Bitcoin today? Can you really afford to lose this? What would be the impact on your life if this were to happen?
2. The worst thing you can do is to sell too cheap (i mean right now).
If bitcoins become cheaper in the future this statement will have empirically proven to be wrong, not?
I follow my own advice.
And I will demonstrate you something empyrically: on 10th, September 2010 you could have bought
BTC52,361 for $5,000 (the price per 1BTC was $0.095).
One year later, that amount of BTC was worth $210k dollars. If you could afford to lose $5,000, you might have followed my advice and HOLDED. I know many who did. If you couldn't afford to lose $5,000, and as in September 2011 we were in the middle of multi-month bear market, you would have sold to secure your "amazing" profits.
Now make the calculations with the current price, and you will realize how much money you would have lost in just one year and a half for not being cold minded enough to hold onto your
BTC53,361
The following statement was just empirically proven wrong in the recent past:
However, investing only a few percent will not allow me to increase my lifestyle if it works out
As I said earlier, BTC is a gamble - and the real winners will be the ones with the balls to hold till the last minute. If you invested an amount you cannot afford to lose, from one side you are a fool because
Bitcoin is beta software, and it can go south at any minute. Not acknowledging this is plain and simply delusional. And secondly, I can guarantee that you will not be one of the real winners, because you will have trembling hands as soon as a deep crash puts in danger your investment, and thus you will not be able to hold till you are really set for life.
However, invest only what you can afford to lose, is not what you are applying in my opinion.
Sure, when you start out with the 5k, few percent of your capital, you do, but the $5k became $5 million in your example, which now represents say 95% of your capital. Can you honestly say at that point that you are 'investing in bitcoin only what you can afford to lose'?