99.99999% segwit will lock in in a few days. There is no controversy over this - miners, users, bitcoincore devs all agree they want this!

But the 1m->2m base blocksize increase is still very split. (I know segwit in effect enables 2-4 times more Tx in this 1/2Meg - but only as the wallets/users upgrade).

According to https://www.xbt.eu/ 90-95% of the miners are supporting the 2Mb blocksize increase that will occur at block 494,784 (edit: correcting as advised below based on https://segwit2x.github.io/segwit2x-announce.html).

So we will get an extra chain in about 90 days time. And the chain with 90% of the hash power will be the chain with the 2Mb block size - so NOT compatible with BitcoinCore!

As I have said before this causes huge issues for the BitcoinCore chain - as blocks will take 10 times longer, and also it will take 20 weeks till the difficulty resets (rather than the normal 2 weeks). And even after the reset blocks will still be taking 2.5 times longer for another 5 weeks.

So the big question is whether the "Economy" will move to the BitcoinSegWit2x code or not - i.e. payment processors, shops, wallets etc... According to https://bitnodes.21.co/nodes/ they have not even started to - only about a few % have moved.

If we have a split where the "Economy" goes one way and the miners go the other will be mess!


Obviously 1000 things could change in the next 90 days...
1) BitcoinCore could release a patch to support 2Mb blocks!
2) Miners could stop supporting NYA (SegWit2x) - if this dropped below 50% I think the new chain would die very quickly.
3) Someone else could release a patch ontop of BitcoinCore that supports 2meg block - is trival to code now as can just hardcode a block to switch on.
4) BitcoinCore could release a patch that speeds up the difficulty reduction (like BitcoinCash did) to avoid issue of slow block issue. But obviously massively reduce security of blockchain!