Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
My gut is screaming bull trap
My gut is screaming bull trap, bear market, capitulation, and bear trap all at the same time.
Getting mixed signals here.
Once, when asked about his gut feeling, Carl Sagan said: "I'd really rather not think with my gut, my brain does the job a lot better"
Don't prodigies and athletes use the least amount of brain power? In fact high level operation has often been (curiously) linked to lower brain activity. Perhaps this has something to do with the subconscious. Anyways, I'm sticking to what I thought 10 or so days ago: downtrend.
Edit: that being said... I'm getting super impatient.
This pretty much sums up the market at the moment. Everyone thinks they will be able to get cheaper coins... but the longer they wait, the less likely that becomes. Once the bids exceed the all time high (not far off), I can see a massive spell of panic buying ensuing.
I'm willing to buy back in at a loss, even if it makes me bleed out, it's been far too long for the case to be otherwise, however, I'm still kind of thinking that BTC is overvalued at the moment. I'm leaving emotion out of this. It seems like bulls are always the same, and while I'm not a bear I just can' see sustainable growth right now.
The Venture capital, techcrunch activity and China are all massive, massive indicators on a medium/ long term... which is why I'm surprised we are not seeing more activity. Seems many are like you, not noticing how big these impacts will be. When the products/ deals/ whatever they spawn are announced (or before they are announced), make no mistake, it will be vicious and many hoping for cheap coins will be left on the sidelines.
As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.
Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.
See the difference?
Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?
Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.
That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.
I am only stating through those examples that you ought not be surprised that news has little significant immediate impact and that it correlates with insignificant up or down swings in the price of BTC since as you point out it is long term. People will not learn this stuff over night.
As for me I have not put 1 red cent into bitcoin. Only sweat and brain power. And it has treated me well.
