How long do you guys think it will take before segwit starts having a major effect on the fees?
You mean to lower fees even more than they already are?
In recent days I sent about 50 transactions low and high value and I was using between $.10 and $.30 per transaction - and some were quite high transaction amounts... Some transactions took a bit longer to go through, but they all went through in less than 24 hours. Really amazing!!! Sure the higher ones went through in less than an hour, but still.. pretty decent.
As far as getting advantages from segwit activation (for example lighting network) could take several months to see actual advantages, so that will be a curious development to watch, as you mentioned, and surely there are better technical folks that could speculate on these matters.