I see what you are calculating.
Look here:
https://mona.co/monaco-whitepaper.pdfPage 9 - How much MCO was issued for ETH.
Do you anywhere see if anyone is selling 10 million MCO? 5 million MCO? 1 million MCO?
If I use your calculations it's not longer 55 million to 100 million for 12 billion. It would be a good half a billion investment to turn Monaco into 120 BILLION DOLLARS.
Here's my understanding of the token supply. I refer to Whitepaper Section 8 (the example on 8.3 is straigtforward)
During the Token Creation Event, X tokens are created.
After the Token Creation event ends, the following additional MCO are created:
X MCO for the Reserve
83% of X MCO for the Founders
33% of X MCO for the Talent Pool (future hires)
17% of X MCO for the Advisors
In total, 3X MCO are createdalmost 10M tokens were created, hence the maximum maximorum total supply will be 30M tokens. It may never be reached.
My 20M assumes That the Founders + Talent + Advisors get their shares (after a vesting periods that are disclosed and will be over in mid-2018).
I took the hypothesis that the Reserve will not be created (quite bold...), see section 8.2.2.
I did not factor some potential token burn. (may be compensated by Reserve?)
So mid 2018, I believe our baseline is
a/ 20M tokens circulating ("hodled" or not)
b/ BTC higher than $4,000 today (I assumed $10k for the exercice, you do the math with another figure).
only (b) is questionnable, and therefore raises one question only: how fast will MCO increase in value vs. BTC ? (same question for EVERY coin btw).
We may also ask how MCO can have a sustainable growth (putting $100M to make $12B is, imho, not sustainable as traders will sell their positions and take the valuation down at the same time the order book moves...)