That the question. Do we actually have any idea about this ?
Nope, and we couldn't even get in the ballpark.
Firstly, we have no idea about P2P transactions. For instance, I've often used LocalBitcoins to find buyers and sellers, but then transacted outside of their service. Secondly, I'm not sure that we have data for all of the defunct exchanges. Thirdly, we have no idea whether exchanges are gaming their volumes. Before Chinese regulators stepped in earlier this year, Okcoin and Huobi had zero trading fees and were trading millions of BTC a day sometimes. Such volumes aren't believable. There are still zero-fee exchanges like Bitflyer, and I don't know how seriously we should take their volume.
Whatever rough picture you might be able to get from exchange activity, you need to assume a very, very wide margin of error.