Actually it's a simple CDF calculation that shows how bad it is to limit block sizes to taking an exorbitant 5 minutes to get to 1MB ...

5 minutes is a 50% block on an expected 10 minute network.
So the CDF is 0.39346934028737 or 1 in 1.6 blocks (60.65%) will be over 5 minutes

or reversing that ... 1 in 2.54 blocks (39.3%) will be under 5 minutes ... yeah that's a big % of blocks, not "albeit a small one" at all.

I'm often surprised at how little maths people understand about Bitcoin when they are considered experts in it ... and/or spending money mining on it ...
Note of course, this last comment is directed at someone else not you ...