Indeed, it's the most relevant point about Bitcoin and block finding.
You can't ever decide if you will find a block, that's just luck, no matter how big or small your hash rate is.

The bigger your hash rate, the more blocks you are expected to find, but not what you are assured to find.

Here you are rewarded for the work you do, not the luck (or bad luck) you have.
The larger your hash rate, the proportionally greater your reward.

However, as a group (pool), we are all rewarded based on the luck of the whole pool finding blocks.
Thus that's the point of being a pool, pooling our resources to minimise that luck variance.

I don't run a high risk casino, like certain other pools

The expected reward here is higher than any other pool.
Luck goes up and down, but the expected, long term, average result, is better here than anywhere else.