More likely it will be 3 coins.
First there was:
Then at the beginning of August Bitcoin split into 2 coins:
- Bitcoin (which added support for the SegWit functionality and kept the limit on block size at 1 megabyte)
- Bitcoin Cash (which increased the limit on block size to 8 megabytes, and did not add SegWit functionality)
Then in November, it is expected that Bitcoin (not Bitcoin Cash) will split into two coins that both want to call themselves "Bitcoin":
- Bitcoin (keeping SegWit functionality and keeping the limit on block size at 1 megabyte)
- Bitcoin (keeping SegWit functionality and increasing the limit on block sizes to 2 megabytes)
Since Bitcoin Cash will continue to exist at that time, there will be 3 coins:
- Bitcoin (keeping SegWit functionality and keeping the limit on block size at 1 megabyte)
- Bitcoin (keeping SegWit functionality and increasing the limit on block sizes to 2 megabytes)
- Bitcoin Cash (which increased the limit on block size to 8 megabytes, and did not add SegWit functionality)
It may become confusing which "Bitcoin" a merchant or exchange is accepting.
Some may call the one with the 2 megabyte block size limit "2X", others may call the one with the 1 megabyte block size limit "SegWit". It will be interesting to see how the market comes to an agreement on what names to use for the 2 variants.
Thanks for this explanation. However, it seems this whole segwit thing has ended up making matters more complicated. Now, from your explanation, if we have 2 different bitcoins, the 1mb and the 2mb, do we end up experiencing the same instance that happened with BCH?
Also, how and when does the whole lightening network then come in? Is it on the 2mb? According to what I have read so far, it seems the lightening network will be the saving grace since the functionality has been included in segwit. But I am still more confused as I don't know what exactly is keeping it right now from being implemented? Also is it possible that there are some people trying to sabotage the whole segwit effort? Hoping to read your view.