Re: DO NOT BUY GPUs to mine! You will not get your money back!
Arguing that GPU mining is dead is also arguing that scrypt mining is dead since GPUs are the best available option for mining scrypt coins, and I happen to disagree with that sentiment. LTC happens to be doing very well at the moment and is valued at over $3 per coin, so we'll see who's right if and when LTC hits Mt Gox...
Yes, but mining LTC vs. mining BTC is currently a wash. There is no advantage to LTC mining. I believe it will stay that way--as soon as LTC becomes attractive, GPUs get moved over from BTC mining, and the advantage disappears. This will happen until ALL GPUs are mining LTC...at which point there may be some time where LTC has an advantage, as the hash rate will likely stop increasing, or greatly slow down. This is months down the road, and does not violate my premise that one should not buy NOW to mine. There are already scrypt FPGA designs in the works which may change this equation (for the worse) at some point as well--it's too soon to tell.
In addition, the LTC/BTC price has been quite stable and I don't see much reason for that to change (however I agree that Gox may give it a short boost).
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Various folks have been making similar statements about GPU mining going all the way back to 2011, and while they may eventually be correct if you wait long enough, timing is everything and everyone up until this point has had the timing wrong. I believe the first few months of 2013 were some of the most profitable ever for GPU miners, and my electricity costs are pretty low (~$0.065/KWh).
All true. However, that doesn't mean I'm not right this time ;-)
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ATI will also release their 8000 series of video cards later this year which should be more powerful and use less power, which will change the GPU mining equation yet again.
Right. But that does not conflict with my premise that one should not buy NOW.
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ASIC supply is currently very limited, and they are going for exorbitant prices (~5BTC per GHs). I refuse to pay that price and will happily stick to GPU mining until the price of ASICs comes down to a reasonable level.
Of course, if you got 'em, smoke 'em...and I agree that ASIC pricing (especially ASICMINER) is exorbitant.
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If the price of LTC and/or BTC goes up, I may even purchase more GPUs if the ROI looks reasonable at that time. Right now, the ROI for GPUs honestly isn't that much worse than the estimated ROI of an ASIC device selling that ~5BTC per GHs if one has low electricity costs! I can build a 2.5 GHs GPU mining rig for ~$1600, and if BTC or LTC is worth zero tomorrow because of a cryptocoin hack, I can always sell the GPUs on Ebay.
I believe some miners purposely give out bad advice on forums like this one to discourage new folks from mining because it will chip away at their own personal profits. How many GPUs do you own, FloridaBear?
I believe some miners purposely give out bad advice on forums like this one to discourage new folks from mining because it will chip away at their own personal profits. How many GPUs do you own, FloridaBear?
Like a car, GPUs lose value the minute you crack the box open--at this point, breaking even is questionable over any time frame. I'm just trying to sound the alarm that GPU mining is essentially over. I don't believe this is bad advice--after looking at the recent rate of increase of hashrate, I'm being conservative. And a few more GPUs doesn't do much to the network has rate when ASICMINER is measuring its increases in TH and overall network %.
I have exactly one GPU mining (a 7970). I have made back nearly 100% of the cost over the last 6 weeks or so. Going forward, I will only see another 2.5 BTC or so out of it ever.