If you're playing with large amounts of money that you depend upon for your livelihood then you absolutely should not be listening to me. Predicting prices with atomic accuracy is fun for me. Nothing more than that. It's really no different from trying to guess how many cookies there are in a jar and is nigh impossible. Drunken pub games at best.

So if you've got a deadline or you're looking for an exit then certainly you should be looking to err on the side of caution. Don't even think about doing otherwise.