If it had been released properly, without the drama, and had chosen a lower difficulty for the block reward increase, it might have stood a chance.
CNC was a ridiculously shitty release and premine, and early difficulty blockade of orphans. Exponential advantage to rigfarms due to blocks being faster than the network diameter lag.
And yet CNC has a diff of 41ish.
ELC can make it to 24. Consider the rewards that INCREASE after diff 24. In the meantime, its just like every other scrypt-1/POW coin til then - dont see why one wouldnt hit ELC in the meantime instead of RYC PWC CNC or the like (or even YAC/botnetcoin, for thatmatter, if not more so).